03 January, 2011

An Ode to Bob Ellis

The conventional wisdom tells us that the Labor government in New South Wales is going to be annihilated at the next election.  Even the normally circumspect Antony Greene called it for the coalition a year out from the election.

However, if the last twelve months has taught us anything about Australian politics, it’s the conventional wisdom can get it profoundly wrong, and that the cycles we have be used to seeing don’t necessarily apply any more.  Be that as it may, Bob Ellis’s assertion today that it’s still possible for Labor to win NSW remains pretty fanciful.  The main reason is that all the factors he quotes are not factors that many people change their vote over.  So the Liberals are taking money from big tobacco.  There’s no excusing that, but who is going to change their vote because of it?  Likewise, who is going to swing away from the Liberals over Vietnam or Jørn Utzon?

A friend on Twitter suggested there ought to be some kind of epic poem to describe Bob’s delusions.  Well, this is about as ‘epic’ as I get:

There once was a writer named Ellis
Who had special insight to tell us
But readers, perplexed
At his reasoning vexed,
Concluded he might just be jealous

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